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| Algebraic! |
Now, first of all, why not any of the other Power Weapons? Well, the Power Axe may be AP2, but it strikes at Initiative 1, and on a guy who must issue Challenges, that's a very, very bad idea because he'll often be dead before he gets to strike. A Power Lance is really not that great for Chaos Space Marines because it only works on the charge, and you won't always be getting the charge. Plus, if you don't win in the first round, its effectiveness drops by a load. The last one is the Power Maul. Honestly, the Power Maul isn't all that bad, but I personally don't think it's such a great option on your Aspiring Champions because you won't be ignoring armour most of the time, so you'll probably die and your opponent won't.
That all said, Axes and Mauls are both great choices on Terminators in my opinion, but for now we're just focusing on your basic squad leader, whether he's in a Raptor squad, Chaos Space Marine squad, Noise Marine squad or whatever.
So, let's get down to the math!
We're going to assume your basic champ, so Initiative 4, WS4, 2 attacks and weapon + Pistol against a standard Space Marine opponent (since, let's face it, these are the most common opponents). We're also assuming you got the charge.
Lightning Claw
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 0.75 wounds before re-rolls, another 0.375 after the re-rolls, coming to a total of 1.125 wounds at AP3, so a dead enemy Sergeant.
Power Sword
4 attacks, 2 hits, 1 wound, so one dead Sergeant.
Now the difference may seem pretty miniscule, but when it comes down to it, the Lightning Claw is far more reliable and will fairly consistently net you at least one wound, while the Power Sword, which may give you more chances to cause wounds, doesn't give you those re-rolls, so if you fail you're pretty much screwed.
But, just to make sure, let's see what happens against Terminators, T3 and T5 opponents.
Terminators
Lightning Claw
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 1.125 total wounds, coming to 0.1875 dead Terminators.
Power Sword
4 attacks, 2 hits, 1 wound, 0.1666... dead Terminators.
T3 Opponents (e.g. Eldar Exarch)
Lightning Claw
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 1 wound before re-rolls, 0.333... with re-rolls, coming to 1.333... dead T3 unit champions.
Power Sword
4 attacks, 2 hits, 1.333... unsaved wounds.
T5 Opponents (e.g. Plague Champion)
Lightning Claw
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 0.5 wounds before re-rolls, 0.333... with re-rolls, coming to 0.8333... dead T5 opponents.
Power Sword
4 attacks, 2 hits, 0.666... wounds caused.
Alright, so it's pretty clear the Lightning Claw is the superior offensive weapon, but since making this post it was brought to my attention by Zeruel13 over in this thread on MiniWarGaming that, as a defensive weapon, the Power Sword is actually better.
Here's a copy/paste of the math Zeruel provided:
Against MEQ (WS4/T4)Lightning Claw (with charge bonus) - 1.13 wounds caused (0.18 unsaved vs 2+ armour)
Lightning Claw (without charge bonus) - 0.75 wounds caused (0.12 unsaved vs 2+ armour)
Power Sword (with charge bonus) - 1 wound caused (.16 unsaved vs 2+ armour)
Power Sword (without charge bonus) - 0.75 wounds caused (0.12 unsaved vs 2+ armour)
Power Maul (with charge bonus) - 1.66 wounds caused (0.55 unsaved vs 3+ or 0.27 unsaved vs 2+ armour)
Power Maul (without charge bonus) - 1.25 wounds caused (0.41 unsaved vs 3+ or 0.2 unsaved vs 2+ armour)
Against GEQ (WS3/T3)Lightning Claw (with charge bonus) - 1.79 wounds caused
Lightning Claw (without charge bonus) - 1.19 wounds caused
Power Sword (with charge bonus) - 1.79 wounds caused
Power Sword (without charge bonus) - 1.34 wounds caused
Power Maul (with charge bonus) - 2.22 wounds caused
Power Maul (without charge bonus) - 1.67 wounds caused
Against EEQ (WS4/T3)Lightning Claw (with charge bonus) - 1.34 wounds caused
Lightning Claw (without charge bonus) - 0.89 wounds caused
Power Sword (with charge bonus) - 1.34 wounds caused
Power Sword (without charge bonus) - 1.05 wounds caused
Power Maul (with charge bonus) - 1.66 wounds caused
Power Maul (without charge bonus) - 1.25 wounds caused
Against Biker MEQ (WS4/T5)Lightning Claw (with charge bonus) - 0.83 wounds caused
Lightning Claw (without charge bonus) - 0.55 wounds caused
Power Sword (with charge bonus) - 0.66 wound caused
Power Sword (without charge bonus) - 0.5 wounds caused
Power Maul (with charge bonus) - 1.34 wounds caused (0.44 unsaved vs 3+)
Power Maul (without charge bonus) - 1 wound caused (0.33 unsaved vs 3+)
He's included the Power Maul as well, because Zeruel believes it's an equally viable option. Personally I disagree, but I guess that's a matter of opinion and what you face.
With Zeruel's information taken into account, I'll be taking Lightning Claws every time on units made for the charge (CCW Chaos Space Marines, Berzerkers, Raptors) while on units that are meant to be shooting a little more up close (anything with a Plasma Gun) then the Power Weapon is definitely going to be my weapon of choice. I still don't think I'll take either on my Noise Marines though, because I'd be taking the Doom Siren first and another 15 points on top of that is just too much for a shooty unit, especially one sitting back 24".
But, like, that's just my opinion man.
Which one are you going to take?
Personally, as I play vanilla space marines, I will most of the time be taking power swords because they are classy and iconic. Pretty much only for fluff reasons. However, occasionally I'll throw a lightening claw on a veteran sergeant. Whenever I need a power weapon on a Storm shield dude, I'll obviously always opt for the lightening claw. They are absolute murder when equipped on Vanguard veterans.
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