Noise Marines vs Thousand Sons

Yet another topic that's debated (arguably less than previous topics, I will admit) is whether Noise Marines or Thousand Sons are superior as a purely shooty troops choice. So let's get into it!

Trigonometric!

Here are the unit builds:
10 Noise Marines - 8 Sonic Blasters, Blastmaster, Icon of Excess - 264pts.
10 Thousand Sons - 265pts.

With only a one point difference, you'd better hope that they're equally worth taking...

First of all, note that I will always assume the Noise Marines are 13"-24" away and that they haven't moved. The Thousand Sons are within 24". Blastmaster, Tzeentch's Firestorm and Doombolt will all be given 3 hits.

Furthermore, Cover is irrelevant against Noise Marines but will be taken into account against the Thousand Sons.

Let's see how they do against some:

MEq

Wounds caused by Psychic Powers
Tzeentch's Firestorm: 3 hits, S5 on average (benefit of the doubt), 2 wounds, 0.666... dead. If that model dies average 2 S3 AP- hits on the unit, 0.666... wounds, 0.222... dead for a total of 0.888... dead if the first hits caused a casualty.

Doombolt: 3 hits, 2.5 wounds, 2.5 dead if no cover, 1.666... if in 5+ cover and 1.25 dead if in 4+ cover.

Noise Marines
25 S4 shots, 16.666... hits, 8.333... wounds, 2.777... unsaved wounds. Blastmaster gets 3 hits, 2.5 wounds, 2.5 dead Marines for a total of 5.2777... dead.

Thousand Sons
Out of cover:
Outside of Rapid Fire range:  9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 3 wounds. 3.666... to 3.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 5.5 with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid-fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 6 wounds. 6.666... to 6.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 8.5 with Doombolt.

In 5+ cover:
Outside of Rapid Fire range: 9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 3 wounds, 2 unsaved wounds. 2.666... to 2.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 3.666... dead with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid Fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 6 wounds, 4 unsaved wounds. 4.666... to 4.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 5.666... dead with Doombolt.

In 4+ cover:
Outside of Rapid Fire range: 9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 3 wounds, 1.5 unsaved wounds. 2.1666... to 2.3888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 2.75 dead with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid Fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 6 wounds, 3 unsaved wounds. 3.666... to 3.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 4.25 dead with Doombolt.

So against MEq I've got to say that the Noise Marines are the better option because, let's face it, no opponent in their right mind is going to leave a squad out in the open for you unit of AP3 Bolter wielding dudes to shoot, so we can pretty much ignore that part of the math, and as soon as the enemy enters even the slightest bit of cover the Noise Marines instantly win out through raw fire power.

It looks like it's just downhill for the Thousand Sons from here, but let's just see how bad it gets...

TEq
Wounds caused by Psychic Powers
Tzeentch's Firestorm: 3 hits, S5 on average (benefit of the doubt), 2 wounds, 0.333... dead. If that model dies average 2 S3 AP- hits on the unit, 0.666... wounds, 0.111... dead for a total of 0.444... dead if the first hits caused a casualty.


Doombolt: 3 hits, 2.5 wounds, 1.666... dead with no cover or 5+ cover and 1.25 dead if in 4+ cover, 0.8333... dead if they have a Storm Shield.

Noise Marines
25 S4 shots, 16.666... hits, 8.333... wounds, 1.3888... unsaved wounds. Blastmaster gets 3 hits, 2.5 wounds, 0.41666... unsaved wounds for a total of 1.80555... dead.

Thousand Sons
Out of cover:

Outside of Rapid Fire range:  9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 3 wounds, 0.5 unsaved wounds. 0.8333... to 0.9444... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 2.1666..., 1.75 or 1.333... dead with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid-fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 6 wounds, 1 unsaved wound. 1.333... to 1.444... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 2.666..., 2.25 or 1.8333... with Doombolt.

QEq
Wounds caused by Psychic Powers
Tzeentch's Firestorm: 3 hits, S5 on average (benefit of the doubt), 2.5 wounds, 1.666... dead. If 1 model dies average 2 S3 AP- hits on the unit, 1 wound, 0.666... dead for a total of 2.333... dead if the first hits caused a casualty. If 2 models died, average 4 S3 AP- hits, 2 wounds, 1.222... dead for a total of 3.888... if the first hits caused 2 wounds.


Doombolt: 3 hits, 2.5 dead if no cover, 1.666... if in 5+ cover and 1.25 dead if in 4+ cover.

Noise Marines
25 S4 shots, 16.666... hits, 11.111... dead. Blastmaster gets 3 hits, 2.5 wounds, 2.5 dead for a total of 13.6111... dead.

Thousand Sons
Out of cover:

Outside of Rapid Fire range:  9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 4 wounds. 5.666..., 6.333... or 7.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 6.5 with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid-fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 8 wounds. 9.666..., 10.333... or 11.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 10.5 with Doombolt.


In 5+ cover:
Outside of Rapid Fire range: 9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 4 wounds, 2.666... unsaved wounds. 4.333..., 5 or 6.555... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 4.333... dead with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid Fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 8 wounds, 5.333... unsaved wounds. 7, 7.666... or 9.222... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 7 dead with Doombolt.


In 4+ cover:
Outside of Rapid Fire range: 9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 4 wounds, 2 unsaved wounds. 3.666..., 4.333 or 5.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 3.25 dead with Doombolt.


Inside Rapid Fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 8 wounds, 4 unsaved wounds. 5.666..., 6.333... or 7.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 5.25 dead with Doombolt.

There you have it. Noise Marines annihilate Thousand Sons when it comes to versing TEq and GEq. I didn't bother with T3/4+ saves because the results would be similar to MEq in that 1k Sons ignore armour while Noise Marines don't, whereas against TEq neither ignores armour and against GEq both do.

Also, there are a few notes that I'd like to make on their game-play that you cannot work out with math:

• Noise Marines can do their maximum amount of damage at least a turn earlier than Thousand Sons because they can achieve this at 24" while Thousand Sons need to be within 12" to really be effective
• As a result of this Noise Marines are far less likely to get assaulted earlier and can therefore shoot for longer, increasing the damage they'll do over the course of a game even further, making them even better
• When being shot back at the Noise Marines are more survivable thanks to a combination of armour/cover save and Feel no Pain (which do a better job than a 4++ save if they're getting shot at by AP3 or better), so Noise Marines are more survivable in fire fights as well
• In combat Noise Marines strike at Initiative 5 which allows them to kill more models before the enemy has a chance to strike, reducing the number of wounds actually caused on the Noise Marines, end then they have armour and FnP to get them throu

Lightning Claw vs Power Sword

There's been endless debate since the release of the new Chaos Space Marines codex on whether one should take a Lightning Claw or Power Sword on their Aspiring Champions.

Algebraic!

Now, first of all, why not any of the other Power Weapons? Well, the Power Axe may be AP2, but it strikes at Initiative 1, and on a guy who must issue Challenges, that's a very, very bad idea because he'll often be dead before he gets to strike. A Power Lance is really not that great for Chaos Space Marines because it only works on the charge, and you won't always be getting the charge. Plus, if you don't win in the first round, its effectiveness drops by a load. The last one is the Power Maul. Honestly, the Power Maul isn't all that bad, but I personally don't think it's such a great option on your Aspiring Champions because you won't be ignoring armour most of the time, so you'll probably die and your opponent won't.

That all said, Axes and Mauls are both great choices on Terminators in my opinion, but for now we're just focusing on your basic squad leader, whether he's in a Raptor squad, Chaos Space Marine squad, Noise Marine squad or whatever.

So, let's get down to the math!

We're going to assume your basic champ, so Initiative 4, WS4, 2 attacks and weapon + Pistol against a standard Space Marine opponent (since, let's face it, these are the most common opponents). We're also assuming you got the charge.

Lightning Claw
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 0.75 wounds before re-rolls, another 0.375 after the re-rolls, coming to a total of 1.125 wounds at AP3, so a dead enemy Sergeant.

Power Sword
4 attacks, 2 hits, 1 wound, so one dead Sergeant.

Now the difference may seem pretty miniscule, but when it comes down to it, the Lightning Claw is far more reliable and will fairly consistently net you at least one wound, while the Power Sword, which may give you more chances to cause wounds, doesn't give you those re-rolls, so if you fail you're pretty much screwed.

But, just to make sure, let's see what happens against Terminators, T3 and T5 opponents.

Terminators
Lightning Claw
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 1.125 total wounds, coming to 0.1875 dead Terminators.

Power Sword
4 attacks, 2 hits, 1 wound, 0.1666... dead Terminators.

T3 Opponents (e.g. Eldar Exarch)
Lightning Claw
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 1 wound before re-rolls, 0.333... with re-rolls, coming to 1.333... dead T3 unit champions.

Power Sword
4 attacks, 2 hits, 1.333... unsaved wounds.

T5 Opponents (e.g. Plague Champion)
Lightning Claw
3 attacks, 1.5 hits, 0.5 wounds before re-rolls, 0.333... with re-rolls, coming to 0.8333... dead T5 opponents.


Power Sword
4 attacks, 2 hits, 0.666... wounds caused.

Alright, so it's pretty clear the Lightning Claw is the superior offensive weapon, but since making this post it was brought to my attention by Zeruel13 over in this thread on MiniWarGaming that, as a defensive weapon, the Power Sword is actually better.

Here's a copy/paste of the math Zeruel provided:
Against MEQ (WS4/T4)Lightning Claw (with charge bonus) - 1.13 wounds caused (0.18 unsaved vs 2+ armour)
Lightning Claw (without charge bonus) - 0.75 wounds caused (0.12 unsaved vs 2+ armour)

Power Sword (with charge bonus) - 1 wound caused (.16 unsaved vs 2+ armour)
Power Sword (without charge bonus) - 0.75 wounds caused (0.12 unsaved vs 2+ armour)

Power Maul (with charge bonus) - 1.66 wounds caused (0.55 unsaved vs 3+ or 0.27 unsaved vs 2+ armour)
Power Maul (without charge bonus) - 1.25 wounds caused (0.41 unsaved vs 3+ or 0.2 unsaved vs 2+ armour)

Against GEQ (WS3/T3)Lightning Claw (with charge bonus) - 1.79 wounds caused
Lightning Claw (without charge bonus) - 1.19 wounds caused

Power Sword (with charge bonus) - 1.79 wounds caused
Power Sword (without charge bonus) - 1.34 wounds caused

Power Maul (with charge bonus) - 2.22 wounds caused
Power Maul (without charge bonus) - 1.67 wounds caused

Against EEQ (WS4/T3)Lightning Claw (with charge bonus) - 1.34 wounds caused
Lightning Claw (without charge bonus) - 0.89 wounds caused

Power Sword (with charge bonus) - 1.34 wounds caused
Power Sword (without charge bonus) - 1.05 wounds caused

Power Maul (with charge bonus) - 1.66 wounds caused
Power Maul (without charge bonus) - 1.25 wounds caused

Against Biker MEQ (WS4/T5)Lightning Claw (with charge bonus) - 0.83 wounds caused
Lightning Claw (without charge bonus) - 0.55 wounds caused

Power Sword (with charge bonus) - 0.66 wound caused
Power Sword (without charge bonus) - 0.5 wounds caused

Power Maul (with charge bonus) - 1.34 wounds caused (0.44 unsaved vs 3+)
Power Maul (without charge bonus) - 1 wound caused (0.33 unsaved vs 3+)

He's included the Power Maul as well, because Zeruel believes it's an equally viable option. Personally I disagree, but I guess that's a matter of opinion and what you face.

With Zeruel's information taken into account, I'll be taking Lightning Claws every time on units made for the charge (CCW Chaos Space Marines, Berzerkers, Raptors) while on units that are meant to be shooting a little more up close (anything with a Plasma Gun) then the Power Weapon is definitely going to be my weapon of choice. I still don't think I'll take either on my Noise Marines though, because I'd be taking the Doom Siren first and another 15 points on top of that is just too much for a shooty unit, especially one sitting back 24".
But, like, that's just my opinion man.

Which one are you going to take?