Noise Marines vs Thousand Sons

Yet another topic that's debated (arguably less than previous topics, I will admit) is whether Noise Marines or Thousand Sons are superior as a purely shooty troops choice. So let's get into it!

Trigonometric!

Here are the unit builds:
10 Noise Marines - 8 Sonic Blasters, Blastmaster, Icon of Excess - 264pts.
10 Thousand Sons - 265pts.

With only a one point difference, you'd better hope that they're equally worth taking...

First of all, note that I will always assume the Noise Marines are 13"-24" away and that they haven't moved. The Thousand Sons are within 24". Blastmaster, Tzeentch's Firestorm and Doombolt will all be given 3 hits.

Furthermore, Cover is irrelevant against Noise Marines but will be taken into account against the Thousand Sons.

Let's see how they do against some:

MEq

Wounds caused by Psychic Powers
Tzeentch's Firestorm: 3 hits, S5 on average (benefit of the doubt), 2 wounds, 0.666... dead. If that model dies average 2 S3 AP- hits on the unit, 0.666... wounds, 0.222... dead for a total of 0.888... dead if the first hits caused a casualty.

Doombolt: 3 hits, 2.5 wounds, 2.5 dead if no cover, 1.666... if in 5+ cover and 1.25 dead if in 4+ cover.

Noise Marines
25 S4 shots, 16.666... hits, 8.333... wounds, 2.777... unsaved wounds. Blastmaster gets 3 hits, 2.5 wounds, 2.5 dead Marines for a total of 5.2777... dead.

Thousand Sons
Out of cover:
Outside of Rapid Fire range:  9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 3 wounds. 3.666... to 3.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 5.5 with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid-fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 6 wounds. 6.666... to 6.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 8.5 with Doombolt.

In 5+ cover:
Outside of Rapid Fire range: 9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 3 wounds, 2 unsaved wounds. 2.666... to 2.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 3.666... dead with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid Fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 6 wounds, 4 unsaved wounds. 4.666... to 4.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 5.666... dead with Doombolt.

In 4+ cover:
Outside of Rapid Fire range: 9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 3 wounds, 1.5 unsaved wounds. 2.1666... to 2.3888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 2.75 dead with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid Fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 6 wounds, 3 unsaved wounds. 3.666... to 3.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 4.25 dead with Doombolt.

So against MEq I've got to say that the Noise Marines are the better option because, let's face it, no opponent in their right mind is going to leave a squad out in the open for you unit of AP3 Bolter wielding dudes to shoot, so we can pretty much ignore that part of the math, and as soon as the enemy enters even the slightest bit of cover the Noise Marines instantly win out through raw fire power.

It looks like it's just downhill for the Thousand Sons from here, but let's just see how bad it gets...

TEq
Wounds caused by Psychic Powers
Tzeentch's Firestorm: 3 hits, S5 on average (benefit of the doubt), 2 wounds, 0.333... dead. If that model dies average 2 S3 AP- hits on the unit, 0.666... wounds, 0.111... dead for a total of 0.444... dead if the first hits caused a casualty.


Doombolt: 3 hits, 2.5 wounds, 1.666... dead with no cover or 5+ cover and 1.25 dead if in 4+ cover, 0.8333... dead if they have a Storm Shield.

Noise Marines
25 S4 shots, 16.666... hits, 8.333... wounds, 1.3888... unsaved wounds. Blastmaster gets 3 hits, 2.5 wounds, 0.41666... unsaved wounds for a total of 1.80555... dead.

Thousand Sons
Out of cover:

Outside of Rapid Fire range:  9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 3 wounds, 0.5 unsaved wounds. 0.8333... to 0.9444... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 2.1666..., 1.75 or 1.333... dead with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid-fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 6 wounds, 1 unsaved wound. 1.333... to 1.444... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 2.666..., 2.25 or 1.8333... with Doombolt.

QEq
Wounds caused by Psychic Powers
Tzeentch's Firestorm: 3 hits, S5 on average (benefit of the doubt), 2.5 wounds, 1.666... dead. If 1 model dies average 2 S3 AP- hits on the unit, 1 wound, 0.666... dead for a total of 2.333... dead if the first hits caused a casualty. If 2 models died, average 4 S3 AP- hits, 2 wounds, 1.222... dead for a total of 3.888... if the first hits caused 2 wounds.


Doombolt: 3 hits, 2.5 dead if no cover, 1.666... if in 5+ cover and 1.25 dead if in 4+ cover.

Noise Marines
25 S4 shots, 16.666... hits, 11.111... dead. Blastmaster gets 3 hits, 2.5 wounds, 2.5 dead for a total of 13.6111... dead.

Thousand Sons
Out of cover:

Outside of Rapid Fire range:  9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 4 wounds. 5.666..., 6.333... or 7.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 6.5 with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid-fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 8 wounds. 9.666..., 10.333... or 11.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 10.5 with Doombolt.


In 5+ cover:
Outside of Rapid Fire range: 9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 4 wounds, 2.666... unsaved wounds. 4.333..., 5 or 6.555... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 4.333... dead with Doombolt.

Inside Rapid Fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 8 wounds, 5.333... unsaved wounds. 7, 7.666... or 9.222... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 7 dead with Doombolt.


In 4+ cover:
Outside of Rapid Fire range: 9 S4 shots, 6 hits, 4 wounds, 2 unsaved wounds. 3.666..., 4.333 or 5.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 3.25 dead with Doombolt.


Inside Rapid Fire range: 18 S4 shots, 12 hits, 8 wounds, 4 unsaved wounds. 5.666..., 6.333... or 7.888... dead with Tzeentch's Firestorm, 5.25 dead with Doombolt.

There you have it. Noise Marines annihilate Thousand Sons when it comes to versing TEq and GEq. I didn't bother with T3/4+ saves because the results would be similar to MEq in that 1k Sons ignore armour while Noise Marines don't, whereas against TEq neither ignores armour and against GEq both do.

Also, there are a few notes that I'd like to make on their game-play that you cannot work out with math:

• Noise Marines can do their maximum amount of damage at least a turn earlier than Thousand Sons because they can achieve this at 24" while Thousand Sons need to be within 12" to really be effective
• As a result of this Noise Marines are far less likely to get assaulted earlier and can therefore shoot for longer, increasing the damage they'll do over the course of a game even further, making them even better
• When being shot back at the Noise Marines are more survivable thanks to a combination of armour/cover save and Feel no Pain (which do a better job than a 4++ save if they're getting shot at by AP3 or better), so Noise Marines are more survivable in fire fights as well
• In combat Noise Marines strike at Initiative 5 which allows them to kill more models before the enemy has a chance to strike, reducing the number of wounds actually caused on the Noise Marines, end then they have armour and FnP to get them throu